2075 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2075, the world’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—will have slowed considerably compared to earlier decades, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions. Most projections suggest that global RNI will be close to zero or even negative, as many countries experience aging populations and declining fertility rates. Africa will likely remain the continent with the highest RNI, driven by persistently high fertility rates in regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa, while Asia’s RNI will have dropped sharply, particularly in East and Southeast Asia, where countries like China, Japan, and South Korea may experience negative natural increase. In contrast, Europe’s RNI will remain negative, as low birth rates and high life expectancy continue to drive population decline, a trend mirrored in parts of North America and Oceania. Latin America’s RNI will also decrease, though not as rapidly as in Europe or East Asia. On the country level, nations such as Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo may still see positive RNI, while countries like Germany, Italy, and Japan will likely face ongoing population shrinkage. This contrast highlights a world increasingly divided between regions with youthful, growing populations and those grappling with demographic aging and natural decrease.

Data from US Census International Database