2074 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2074, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rate and death rate—will have declined significantly compared to the early 21st century. Most projections suggest that the world’s RNI will hover near zero or even become negative, reflecting widespread aging and lower fertility rates. Africa will remain the only continent with a substantial positive RNI, driven by persistently high birth rates in countries like Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Ethiopia. In contrast, Asia’s RNI will have sharply declined, with countries such as China, Japan, and South Korea experiencing negative rates due to aging populations and low fertility, while South Asian nations like India and Pakistan may maintain slightly positive but diminishing rates. Europe will continue to see negative RNI, with countries like Italy, Germany, and Russia facing population decline unless offset by immigration. Latin America’s RNI will be low or near zero, as fertility rates drop to replacement level or below in countries like Brazil and Mexico. North America’s RNI will also be modest, with the United States and Canada relying increasingly on immigration to sustain population growth. Thus, by 2074, the demographic divide will be stark: Africa as the last region with significant natural increase, while most other continents confront stagnation or natural decrease in population.

Data from US Census International Database