2073 Rate of Natural Increase

By 2073, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—will likely have declined significantly compared to the early 21st century, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions worldwide. In most of Europe, East Asia (including China, Japan, and South Korea), and parts of the Americas, RNI is expected to be negative or near zero, as aging populations and persistently low fertility rates outweigh births. Africa, particularly Sub-Saharan Africa, is projected to maintain the highest RNI, though even here, rates will have decreased from current highs due to improvements in education, healthcare, and urbanization. South Asia (notably India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh) will see a continued decline in RNI, moving closer to replacement-level fertility. In contrast, regions like the Middle East and parts of Southeast Asia may retain moderate RNIs, though these too will trend downward. Thus, while countries like Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo may still experience positive RNI and population growth, nations such as Germany, Japan, and Italy will likely see population shrinkage, highlighting stark contrasts in demographic futures across continents and regions.

Data from US Census International Database