2072 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2072, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth and death rates—will have declined significantly compared to the early 21st century, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions worldwide. Most projections suggest that the global RNI will hover close to zero, with some regions experiencing negative growth. Africa will remain the continent with the highest RNI, driven by relatively high fertility rates in countries such as Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, though even these rates will be lower than in previous decades. In contrast, Europe and East Asia, including countries like Germany, Italy, Japan, and China, will continue to see negative RNIs, as deaths outpace births due to aging populations and persistently low fertility rates. South Asia, particularly India and Bangladesh, will see their RNIs approach replacement levels, while Latin America will experience a modest positive or near-zero RNI. This divergence highlights a stark contrast: while some African nations will still be growing naturally, many developed countries and some emerging economies will confront population decline, reshaping global demographics and economic dynamics.

Data from US Census International Database