2071 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2071, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth and death rates—will likely have slowed dramatically compared to the early 21st century, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions worldwide. Africa is projected to maintain the highest RNI, with many Sub-Saharan countries still experiencing youthful populations and higher fertility rates, though these are expected to gradually decline. In contrast, Asia’s RNI will continue to decrease, with countries like India and China facing near-zero or even negative natural increase due to aging populations and sustained low fertility. Europe and East Asia, including Japan and South Korea, are expected to have negative RNIs, with deaths outnumbering births, leading to population decline unless offset by immigration. Latin America’s RNI will be modest, with most countries transitioning to lower birth rates but not yet experiencing the pronounced natural decrease seen in Europe. North America and Oceania will likely see low but positive RNIs, with the United States and Australia maintaining slightly higher rates than Europe due to higher fertility and immigration. Overall, the world’s population growth in 2071 will be concentrated in a few African and South Asian countries, while many developed nations will grapple with shrinking and aging populations, highlighting stark contrasts in demographic trends across continents and regions.

Data from US Census International Database