By the year 2070, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates, excluding migration—is projected to be significantly lower than in previous decades, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions. Most continents, particularly Europe and East Asia, are expected to experience negative or near-zero RNI due to sustained low fertility rates and aging populations; countries like Japan, Italy, and Russia may see population declines from natural decrease. In contrast, sub-Saharan Africa is likely to maintain the highest RNI, with countries such as Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo continuing to have high birth rates that outpace mortality, although even here, the RNI is expected to gradually decline as fertility rates fall. South Asia and parts of the Middle East may still have positive, but much reduced, RNIs compared to the early 21st century. Latin America and Southeast Asia will likely see their RNIs approach zero, mirroring trends already observed in more developed regions. This divergence highlights a world where population growth is increasingly concentrated in a few regions, while many countries face the challenges of aging and shrinking populations.
Rank | Country | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Benin | 2.149 | 52,310,025 |
2 | Niger | 2.026 | 99,845,408 |
3 | Congo Kinshasa | 1.947 | 374,238,140 |
4 | Guinea | 1.865 | 42,338,555 |
5 | Guinea-Bissau | 1.86 | 6,045,875 |
6 | Angola | 1.792 | 126,520,022 |
7 | Mozambique | 1.705 | 93,474,838 |
8 | Liberia | 1.614 | 15,097,020 |
9 | Uganda | 1.586 | 138,929,905 |
10 | Nigeria | 1.543 | 607,579,446 |
11 | Chad | 1.519 | 53,794,823 |
12 | Cameroon | 1.492 | 81,581,492 |
13 | Burundi | 1.478 | 36,092,073 |
14 | Congo Brazzaville | 1.443 | 14,200,163 |
15 | South Sudan | 1.411 | 32,752,161 |
16 | Tanzania | 1.405 | 173,926,608 |
17 | Zambia | 1.321 | 52,927,941 |
18 | Togo | 1.32 | 20,697,334 |
19 | Mali | 1.293 | 56,525,992 |
20 | Zimbabwe | 1.24 | 32,074,971 |
21 | Somalia | 1.228 | 30,495,011 |
22 | Sudan | 1.205 | 118,738,298 |
23 | Ethiopia | 1.015 | 251,754,220 |
24 | Ghana | 1.006 | 70,648,436 |
25 | Afghanistan | 0.972 | 80,139,275 |
26 | Central African Republic | 0.953 | 10,194,786 |
27 | Equatorial Guinea | 0.952 | 3,776,844 |
28 | Gabon | 0.949 | 5,348,156 |
29 | Senegal | 0.899 | 38,237,072 |
30 | Burkina Faso | 0.845 | 45,881,292 |
31.5 | Kenya | 0.815 | 109,759,087 |
31.5 | Côte d'Ivoire | 0.815 | 58,473,809 |
33 | Kuwait | 0.803 | 4,286,420 |
34 | Mauritania | 0.802 | 7,877,072 |
35 | Papua New Guinea | 0.781 | 19,596,551 |
36.5 | Gaza Strip | 0.778 | 3,584,696 |
36.5 | Timor-Leste | 0.778 | 2,556,472 |
38 | Madagascar | 0.77 | 55,538,234 |
39 | Malawi | 0.75 | 41,458,601 |
40 | Sierra Leone | 0.747 | 17,730,554 |
41 | Eritrea | 0.739 | 10,537,932 |
42 | United Arab Emirates | 0.738 | 13,887,688 |
43 | Qatar | 0.713 | 2,707,196 |
44 | Namibia | 0.697 | 4,985,145 |
45 | Pakistan | 0.681 | 434,488,371 |
46 | The Gambia | 0.678 | 4,611,459 |
47 | Iraq | 0.671 | 75,482,295 |
48 | Jordan | 0.626 | 18,272,719 |
49 | West Bank | 0.625 | 4,796,071 |
50 | Belize | 0.594 | 686,021 |
51 | Rwanda | 0.573 | 21,901,286 |
52 | Sao Tome and Principe | 0.54 | 357,670 |
53 | Libya | 0.537 | 10,678,866 |
54 | Egypt | 0.535 | 172,141,429 |
55 | Israel | 0.517 | 14,715,528 |
56 | Syria | 0.506 | 38,210,952 |
57 | Oman | 0.5 | 6,223,407 |
58 | Saint Martin | 0.499 | 36,077 |
59 | Vanuatu | 0.479 | 489,251 |
60 | Lesotho | 0.472 | 2,779,437 |
61 | Yemen | 0.471 | 52,639,865 |
62 | Solomon Islands | 0.468 | 1,139,890 |
63 | Tuvalu | 0.463 | 13,818 |
64 | Philippines | 0.436 | 177,550,114 |
65 | Federated States of Micronesia | 0.428 | 58,284 |
66 | Guatemala | 0.42 | 27,279,690 |
67 | Nauru | 0.359 | 12,505 |
68 | Comoros | 0.358 | 1,271,959 |
69 | Brunei | 0.338 | 734,377 |
70 | Tajikistan | 0.313 | 13,205,635 |
71 | Haiti | 0.305 | 15,616,454 |
72 | Samoa | 0.304 | 271,614 |
73 | Djibouti | 0.287 | 1,546,405 |
74 | Kyrgyzstan | 0.281 | 7,186,010 |
75 | Kiribati | 0.277 | 146,921 |
76 | Guam | 0.268 | 141,899 |
77.5 | Panama | 0.267 | 6,351,370 |
77.5 | Saudi Arabia | 0.267 | 50,775,400 |
79 | Bahrain | 0.247 | 1,948,892 |
80 | Marshall Islands | 0.243 | 107,774 |
81 | Eswatini | 0.24 | 1,344,561 |
82 | Jamaica | 0.175 | 3,128,444 |
83 | Botswana | 0.164 | 3,564,966 |
84 | Dominican Republic | 0.143 | 12,888,330 |
85 | Faroe Islands | 0.132 | 60,822 |
86 | Anguilla | 0.129 | 32,605 |
87 | Algeria | 0.119 | 59,110,461 |
88 | Tonga | 0.118 | 91,412 |
89 | Australia | 0.11 | 37,464,395 |
90 | Argentina | 0.089 | 57,750,971 |
91.5 | Luxembourg | 0.079 | 1,023,621 |
91.5 | Northern Mariana Islands | 0.079 | 40,578 |
93.5 | Laos | 0.076 | 10,487,275 |
93.5 | Honduras | 0.076 | 12,446,247 |
95 | Antigua and Barbuda | 0.067 | 133,037 |
96 | South Africa | 0.047 | 71,223,825 |
97 | Cayman Islands | 0.045 | 110,749 |
98 | Cambodia | 0.034 | 20,443,664 |
99 | Kazakhstan | 0.023 | 23,088,775 |
100 | Turkmenistan | 0.018 | 6,737,353 |
101 | Morocco | 0.015 | 43,625,091 |
102 | Ecuador | 0.014 | 22,282,544 |
103 | Guyana | 0.01 | 814,441 |
105 | Venezuela | -0.002 | 37,160,315 |
105 | Turks and Caicos Islands | -0.002 | 98,989 |
105 | Bangladesh | -0.002 | 194,091,574 |
107 | Iceland | -0.003 | 434,833 |
108 | Switzerland | -0.018 | 10,560,106 |
109 | Cabo Verde | -0.02 | 774,740 |
110 | The Bahamas | -0.031 | 414,348 |
111 | Peru | -0.032 | 38,272,484 |
112 | Malaysia | -0.033 | 43,432,280 |
113 | British Virgin Islands | -0.034 | 61,573 |
114 | New Caledonia | -0.035 | 406,486 |
115 | Ireland | -0.045 | 6,925,763 |
116 | Mexico | -0.05 | 155,868,866 |
117 | Suriname | -0.058 | 828,642 |
118 | New Zealand | -0.059 | 6,297,435 |
119 | Norway | -0.061 | 6,950,156 |
120 | Fiji | -0.062 | 1,012,882 |
121.5 | Nepal | -0.066 | 35,849,817 |
121.5 | Jersey | -0.066 | 111,439 |
123 | Netherlands | -0.068 | 18,723,766 |
124 | Denmark | -0.084 | 6,643,121 |
125 | United Kingdom | -0.086 | 76,712,671 |
126 | Belgium | -0.087 | 13,588,583 |
127 | Sweden | -0.09 | 12,313,831 |
128 | Aruba | -0.091 | 171,686 |
129 | Indonesia | -0.096 | 317,698,870 |
130 | Paraguay | -0.097 | 9,212,276 |
131 | Bolivia | -0.102 | 14,760,406 |
132 | Sri Lanka | -0.108 | 25,205,349 |
133.5 | Greenland | -0.119 | 49,717 |
133.5 | India | -0.119 | 1,639,583,160 |
135 | Burma | -0.129 | 63,657,024 |
136 | Costa Rica | -0.142 | 6,301,682 |
137 | Mongolia | -0.147 | 3,658,000 |
138 | Kosovo | -0.161 | 2,252,050 |
139 | Curaçao | -0.165 | 146,715 |
140 | Sint Maarten | -0.168 | 56,935 |
141 | Canada | -0.18 | 46,661,506 |
142 | Bhutan | -0.182 | 1,065,702 |
143 | Vietnam | -0.188 | 120,342,078 |
144 | France | -0.194 | 70,481,400 |
145 | Colombia | -0.203 | 47,747,851 |
146.5 | Liechtenstein | -0.208 | 46,732 |
146.5 | North Korea | -0.208 | 26,462,190 |
148 | Uruguay | -0.223 | 3,497,619 |
149 | Guernsey | -0.23 | 67,506 |
150 | Uzbekistan | -0.236 | 35,479,436 |
151 | Maldives | -0.255 | 453,607 |
152.5 | Bermuda | -0.256 | 67,226 |
152.5 | Finland | -0.256 | 5,536,918 |
154 | Chile | -0.259 | 19,661,897 |
155 | Austria | -0.269 | 9,471,191 |
156 | Grenada | -0.277 | 112,405 |
157.5 | Gibraltar | -0.279 | 26,897 |
157.5 | Brazil | -0.279 | 232,222,961 |
159 | Nicaragua | -0.282 | 7,076,721 |
160 | Azerbaijan | -0.285 | 11,031,743 |
161 | Saint Barthelemy | -0.292 | 6,515 |
162 | Palau | -0.297 | 21,563 |
163 | French Polynesia | -0.304 | 320,339 |
164 | Iran | -0.313 | 99,019,137 |
165 | Tunisia | -0.315 | 12,215,592 |
166 | American Samoa | -0.318 | 24,829 |
167 | El Salvador | -0.334 | 5,883,761 |
168 | Turkey | -0.355 | 85,804,712 |
169 | Georgia | -0.376 | 4,531,579 |
170 | Italy | -0.384 | 59,785,383 |
171 | Isle of Man | -0.389 | 92,291 |
172 | Germany | -0.403 | 75,649,563 |
173 | Singapore | -0.423 | 7,056,146 |
174 | Barbados | -0.438 | 272,836 |
175 | Saint Vincent and the Grenadines | -0.46 | 88,398 |
176 | Cook Islands | -0.476 | 4,836 |
177 | Czechia | -0.484 | 10,039,503 |
178 | Malta | -0.499 | 490,470 |
179 | San Marino | -0.516 | 33,192 |
180.5 | Wallis and Futuna | -0.524 | 15,075 |
180.5 | Lebanon | -0.524 | 5,324,497 |
182 | Cuba | -0.525 | 8,896,760 |
183 | Montenegro | -0.552 | 431,643 |
184.5 | Russia | -0.569 | 122,251,627 |
184.5 | North Macedonia | -0.569 | 1,915,606 |
186 | Slovenia | -0.571 | 1,827,994 |
187 | Macau | -0.593 | 670,646 |
188 | Greece | -0.623 | 8,544,817 |
189 | Romania | -0.625 | 13,712,467 |
190 | Lithuania | -0.63 | 1,768,357 |
191 | Seychelles | -0.632 | 91,810 |
192 | Dominica | -0.634 | 57,782 |
193 | Trinidad and Tobago | -0.655 | 1,214,716 |
194 | Saint Helena, Ascension, and Tristan da Cunha | -0.658 | 6,685 |
195 | Cyprus | -0.659 | 1,304,612 |
196 | Belarus | -0.66 | 7,593,291 |
197 | Saint Kitts and Nevis | -0.674 | 53,125 |
198 | Thailand | -0.678 | 58,504,654 |
199 | Spain | -0.681 | 42,436,011 |
200.5 | Albania | -0.682 | 2,523,893 |
200.5 | Croatia | -0.682 | 3,201,220 |
202 | Ukraine | -0.689 | 32,663,070 |
203 | Hungary | -0.69 | 7,756,343 |
204 | Portugal | -0.699 | 8,903,832 |
205 | U.S. Virgin Islands | -0.727 | 66,889 |
206 | Serbia | -0.729 | 4,970,668 |
207 | Slovakia | -0.747 | 4,388,267 |
208 | China | -0.77 | 1,194,715,260 |
209 | Mauritius | -0.78 | 1,082,622 |
210 | Bulgaria | -0.785 | 4,914,052 |
211 | Poland | -0.807 | 28,900,839 |
212 | Moldova | -0.826 | 1,802,486 |
213 | Hong Kong | -0.834 | 6,091,454 |
214 | Puerto Rico | -0.843 | 1,803,798 |
215 | Estonia | -0.879 | 801,780 |
216 | Japan | -0.895 | 91,473,753 |
217 | Latvia | -0.901 | 1,067,075 |
218 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | -0.915 | 2,764,748 |
219 | Andorra | -1.014 | 63,688 |
220 | Montserrat | -1.019 | 4,810 |
221 | Taiwan | -1.078 | 18,933,457 |
222 | Monaco | -1.082 | 29,686 |
223 | Armenia | -1.085 | 2,030,497 |
224 | South Korea | -1.13 | 43,195,563 |
225 | Saint Pierre and Miquelon | -1.194 | 2,848 |
226 | Saint Lucia | -1.733 | 144,586 |
Data from US Census International Database