2070 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2070, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates, excluding migration—is projected to be significantly lower than in previous decades, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions. Most continents, particularly Europe and East Asia, are expected to experience negative or near-zero RNI due to sustained low fertility rates and aging populations; countries like Japan, Italy, and Russia may see population declines from natural decrease. In contrast, sub-Saharan Africa is likely to maintain the highest RNI, with countries such as Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo continuing to have high birth rates that outpace mortality, although even here, the RNI is expected to gradually decline as fertility rates fall. South Asia and parts of the Middle East may still have positive, but much reduced, RNIs compared to the early 21st century. Latin America and Southeast Asia will likely see their RNIs approach zero, mirroring trends already observed in more developed regions. This divergence highlights a world where population growth is increasingly concentrated in a few regions, while many countries face the challenges of aging and shrinking populations.

Data from US Census International Database