2069 Rate of Natural Increase

By 2069, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates, excluding migration—is projected to be significantly lower than in previous decades, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions. Africa is expected to maintain the highest RNI among continents, driven by persistently high birth rates in sub-Saharan countries such as Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo, though even these are anticipated to gradually decline as access to education and healthcare improves. In contrast, Europe and East Asia are likely to experience negative or near-zero RNI, with countries like Japan, Italy, and Russia facing shrinking populations due to low fertility and aging demographics. South Asia, particularly India, will see a continued but slowing RNI, while Latin America’s RNI will stabilize at low levels, mirroring trends in North America where the United States and Canada rely increasingly on migration for population growth. This stark contrast highlights a world where population growth is concentrated in a handful of developing regions, while many developed countries grapple with population decline and its socioeconomic implications.

Data from US Census International Database