2068 Rate of Natural Increase

By 2068, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—will likely continue its decades-long decline, reflecting trends of falling fertility and aging populations. Africa is projected to maintain the highest RNI among continents, driven by persistently high birth rates in sub-Saharan countries such as Nigeria, Niger, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, where RNIs could remain above 2%. In contrast, Europe and East Asia are expected to experience negative RNIs, with countries like Japan, Italy, and Russia facing shrinking populations due to low fertility and higher median ages. South Asia, particularly India and Bangladesh, will see their RNIs decrease but remain positive, while Latin America will approach demographic stabilization with RNIs near zero. The Middle East and North Africa may retain moderate RNIs, though declining fertility will bring them closer to global averages. Thus, by 2068, the world will see stark contrasts: rapid natural population growth in some African nations, stagnation or decline in much of Europe and East Asia, and transitional dynamics elsewhere, reshaping the global demographic landscape.

Data from US Census International Database