2066 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2066, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates, excluding migration—is projected to have slowed significantly compared to the early 21st century. Africa is expected to maintain the highest RNI, with many Sub-Saharan countries still experiencing birth rates far exceeding death rates, though even here, fertility is gradually declining. In contrast, Europe and East Asia, including countries such as Japan, South Korea, and much of Eastern Europe, are likely to see negative RNIs, with deaths outnumbering births due to aging populations and persistently low fertility rates. South Asia and Latin America will display moderate RNIs, with countries like India and Brazil nearing replacement-level fertility or slightly below. Meanwhile, North America and Oceania may hover around zero or slightly positive RNI, with population growth increasingly reliant on immigration rather than natural increase. This divergence highlights a stark contrast: while African nations such as Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo could still see RNIs above 2%, countries like Germany, Italy, and China may face RNIs of -0.5% or lower, underscoring a world of demographic extremes by 2066.

Data from US Census International Database