2065 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2065, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—will likely have declined significantly compared to the early 21st century, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions worldwide. Most projections indicate that Africa will remain the continent with the highest RNI, driven by relatively high fertility rates and a youthful population, particularly in countries such as Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. In contrast, Asia’s RNI will continue to decrease, with countries like Japan, South Korea, and China experiencing negative or near-zero natural increase due to aging populations and low birth rates. Europe will likely see the lowest, and often negative, RNI, as deaths outnumber births in many countries, including Germany, Italy, and Russia. Latin America and the Caribbean will have a modest RNI, with some countries like Guatemala maintaining higher rates, while others like Brazil and Argentina experience further declines. North America’s RNI will remain low, with the United States and Canada relying increasingly on immigration for population growth. Thus, by 2065, the world’s population growth will be highly uneven, with Africa driving most natural increase, while many countries in Europe and East Asia face population decline due to persistently low birth rates and aging populations.

Data from US Census International Database