2064 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2064, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—will likely have declined significantly compared to earlier decades. Projections suggest that most continents, particularly Europe and East Asia, will experience negative or near-zero RNI, driven by aging populations and persistently low fertility rates. Africa, especially Sub-Saharan Africa, will remain the primary region with a positive RNI, though even there, the rate is expected to slow as fertility rates gradually decrease and life expectancy rises. In contrast, regions such as Latin America and South Asia will see their RNI approach zero, reflecting demographic transitions toward lower birth and death rates. Countries like Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo may still exhibit relatively high RNI, while nations such as Japan, Italy, and Russia will likely continue to face population decline due to negative RNI. This divergence will shape global population distribution, with Africa accounting for a growing share of the world’s population, while many countries in Europe and East Asia contend with shrinking and aging populations.

Data from US Census International Database