2063 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2063, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth and death rates—will have slowed significantly compared to earlier decades, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions. According to United Nations projections, the world’s RNI will likely be well below 0.5% per year, with many regions experiencing near-zero or even negative growth. Africa will remain the continent with the highest RNI, particularly in sub-Saharan countries such as Niger and Nigeria, where youthful populations and higher fertility rates persist. In contrast, Europe and East Asia—including countries like Germany, Italy, Japan, and South Korea—are expected to continue experiencing negative RNI, with deaths outnumbering births due to aging populations and low fertility. Latin America and South Asia will see their RNI decline, with countries like Brazil and India approaching replacement-level fertility or lower. The Middle East and parts of Southeast Asia may maintain moderate RNI, but overall, the global trend will be toward slower population growth, with stark contrasts between regions experiencing demographic momentum and those facing population decline.

Data from US Census International Database