By the year 2062, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—will have declined significantly compared to the early 21st century. United Nations projections suggest the world’s RNI will hover near zero or even become negative, signaling a plateau or slight decrease in total population. Africa will remain the only continent with a substantial positive RNI, driven by persistently high fertility rates in countries like Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Ethiopia, although even these rates will be lower than in previous decades. In contrast, Asia’s RNI will have dropped sharply, with countries such as China, Japan, and South Korea experiencing negative natural growth due to aging populations and low birth rates. Europe’s RNI will remain negative, with many Eastern and Southern European nations facing population decline unless offset by immigration. Latin America’s RNI will be close to zero, reflecting declining fertility and improving life expectancy. North America and Oceania will see very modest positive RNI, largely sustained by immigration rather than natural increase. This global shift highlights a stark contrast: while sub-Saharan Africa will continue to grow naturally, most other regions and countries will contend with stagnant or shrinking populations, fundamentally altering demographic and economic landscapes.
Rank | Country | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Benin | 2.382 | 43,612,983 |
2 | Niger | 2.323 | 84,000,264 |
3 | Congo Kinshasa | 2.175 | 317,503,456 |
4 | Guinea-Bissau | 2.11 | 5,212,072 |
5 | Guinea | 2.103 | 36,119,808 |
6 | Angola | 2.086 | 108,341,746 |
7 | Mozambique | 1.953 | 81,111,158 |
8 | Uganda | 1.87 | 122,114,649 |
9 | Liberia | 1.864 | 13,252,512 |
10 | Chad | 1.778 | 47,156,085 |
11 | Nigeria | 1.742 | 533,632,139 |
12 | Cameroon | 1.729 | 71,785,433 |
13 | Burundi | 1.719 | 31,820,831 |
14 | Tanzania | 1.63 | 154,036,089 |
15 | Congo Brazzaville | 1.62 | 12,558,968 |
16 | South Sudan | 1.606 | 29,008,735 |
17 | Mali | 1.589 | 50,954,301 |
18 | Zambia | 1.534 | 47,220,914 |
19 | Togo | 1.532 | 18,580,877 |
20 | Zimbabwe | 1.484 | 29,318,536 |
21 | Somalia | 1.455 | 27,385,986 |
22 | Sudan | 1.445 | 106,918,417 |
23 | Ethiopia | 1.216 | 230,421,414 |
24 | Ghana | 1.163 | 64,822,994 |
25 | Afghanistan | 1.16 | 73,646,926 |
26 | Central African Republic | 1.159 | 9,503,376 |
27 | Gabon | 1.139 | 4,852,876 |
28 | Senegal | 1.084 | 35,419,955 |
29 | Burkina Faso | 1.063 | 42,615,175 |
30 | Equatorial Guinea | 1.052 | 3,485,368 |
31 | Timor-Leste | 1.016 | 2,429,168 |
32 | Gaza Strip | 1.012 | 3,406,398 |
33 | Côte d'Ivoire | 0.994 | 54,125,687 |
34 | Kenya | 0.991 | 102,183,182 |
35 | Mauritania | 0.985 | 7,356,970 |
36 | Papua New Guinea | 0.974 | 18,271,228 |
37 | Madagascar | 0.967 | 51,812,338 |
38 | Malawi | 0.955 | 38,725,171 |
39 | Sierra Leone | 0.94 | 16,493,450 |
40 | Kuwait | 0.916 | 4,148,749 |
41 | Eritrea | 0.912 | 9,954,655 |
42 | The Gambia | 0.882 | 4,333,524 |
43 | Namibia | 0.872 | 4,682,051 |
44 | Pakistan | 0.866 | 410,273,722 |
45 | Iraq | 0.846 | 71,040,273 |
46 | West Bank | 0.83 | 4,620,630 |
47 | Jordan | 0.813 | 17,389,454 |
48.5 | Rwanda | 0.755 | 20,996,037 |
48.5 | Belize | 0.755 | 652,992 |
50 | United Arab Emirates | 0.744 | 13,393,425 |
51 | Qatar | 0.74 | 2,654,999 |
52.5 | Sao Tome and Principe | 0.714 | 340,207 |
52.5 | Oman | 0.714 | 5,974,287 |
54 | Syria | 0.688 | 36,630,371 |
55 | Tuvalu | 0.675 | 13,781 |
56 | Solomon Islands | 0.667 | 1,097,892 |
57 | Yemen | 0.663 | 50,354,500 |
58 | Vanuatu | 0.653 | 470,684 |
59 | Libya | 0.65 | 10,410,333 |
60 | Israel | 0.635 | 13,910,075 |
61 | Philippines | 0.624 | 171,306,540 |
62 | Egypt | 0.619 | 164,628,343 |
63 | Guatemala | 0.608 | 26,412,404 |
64 | Lesotho | 0.606 | 2,739,619 |
65 | Federated States of Micronesia | 0.577 | 63,760 |
66 | Saint Martin | 0.542 | 35,777 |
67 | Comoros | 0.522 | 1,243,226 |
68 | Marshall Islands | 0.486 | 107,408 |
69 | Djibouti | 0.48 | 1,499,932 |
70 | Tajikistan | 0.468 | 12,875,635 |
71 | Haiti | 0.462 | 15,312,375 |
72 | Kiribati | 0.457 | 145,040 |
73 | Brunei | 0.454 | 703,360 |
74 | Samoa | 0.452 | 263,464 |
75 | Nauru | 0.446 | 12,107 |
76 | Eswatini | 0.432 | 1,344,940 |
77 | Kyrgyzstan | 0.43 | 7,216,299 |
78 | Panama | 0.397 | 6,180,689 |
79 | Bahrain | 0.364 | 1,921,776 |
80 | Guam | 0.362 | 148,281 |
81 | Saudi Arabia | 0.35 | 50,123,220 |
82 | Botswana | 0.304 | 3,446,140 |
83 | Dominican Republic | 0.296 | 12,891,999 |
84 | Honduras | 0.272 | 12,372,628 |
85 | Laos | 0.262 | 10,373,939 |
86 | Algeria | 0.243 | 58,587,244 |
87 | Jamaica | 0.241 | 3,076,617 |
88 | Cambodia | 0.222 | 20,591,839 |
89 | Argentina | 0.217 | 57,059,681 |
90 | Tonga | 0.201 | 90,232 |
91 | Guyana | 0.2 | 833,559 |
92 | Faroe Islands | 0.195 | 60,037 |
93 | Bangladesh | 0.193 | 196,462,007 |
94 | Cabo Verde | 0.186 | 772,337 |
95 | Ecuador | 0.176 | 22,114,255 |
96 | Turkmenistan | 0.172 | 6,764,762 |
97 | Morocco | 0.157 | 43,841,455 |
98 | Australia | 0.156 | 35,916,054 |
99 | Anguilla | 0.153 | 30,650 |
100 | Venezuela | 0.149 | 37,235,025 |
101 | Antigua and Barbuda | 0.145 | 130,297 |
102 | Nepal | 0.141 | 36,021,179 |
103 | South Africa | 0.14 | 70,545,173 |
104 | Peru | 0.138 | 38,603,258 |
105 | Luxembourg | 0.133 | 970,892 |
106 | Paraguay | 0.105 | 9,214,756 |
107 | Malaysia | 0.102 | 42,917,581 |
108 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 0.098 | 94,673 |
109 | Kazakhstan | 0.086 | 22,930,162 |
110 | Mexico | 0.081 | 155,696,238 |
111 | Bolivia | 0.077 | 14,870,085 |
112 | New Caledonia | 0.066 | 397,388 |
113 | Fiji | 0.064 | 1,023,290 |
114 | Northern Mariana Islands | 0.06 | 41,977 |
115 | British Virgin Islands | 0.058 | 60,255 |
116 | Iceland | 0.057 | 429,662 |
117 | Cayman Islands | 0.054 | 103,852 |
118 | Suriname | 0.044 | 816,284 |
119 | Bhutan | 0.033 | 1,072,221 |
120 | The Bahamas | 0.032 | 414,401 |
121 | India | 0.026 | 1,647,871,198 |
122 | Indonesia | 0.011 | 320,433,630 |
123 | Ireland | 0.004 | 6,777,856 |
124 | New Zealand | -0.007 | 6,195,238 |
125 | Burma | -0.009 | 64,651,561 |
126 | Costa Rica | -0.013 | 6,309,171 |
127.5 | Sri Lanka | -0.015 | 25,514,907 |
127.5 | Kosovo | -0.015 | 2,267,677 |
129 | Norway | -0.02 | 6,798,958 |
130 | Maldives | -0.023 | 458,819 |
131 | Switzerland | -0.031 | 10,273,648 |
132 | Nicaragua | -0.034 | 7,261,695 |
133 | Colombia | -0.037 | 49,704,465 |
134 | Jersey | -0.043 | 111,112 |
135 | Gibraltar | -0.047 | 28,026 |
136 | Mongolia | -0.051 | 3,708,138 |
137 | Vietnam | -0.053 | 121,702,621 |
138 | Sweden | -0.062 | 12,151,555 |
139 | Aruba | -0.064 | 164,712 |
140 | Uzbekistan | -0.066 | 35,916,305 |
141 | Greenland | -0.071 | 51,095 |
142 | El Salvador | -0.076 | 6,188,475 |
143 | Denmark | -0.077 | 6,556,620 |
144 | United Kingdom | -0.078 | 75,824,632 |
145 | Curaçao | -0.082 | 149,684 |
146.5 | Netherlands | -0.086 | 18,571,622 |
146.5 | Belgium | -0.086 | 13,399,484 |
148 | Uruguay | -0.111 | 3,544,640 |
149 | Brazil | -0.146 | 236,565,282 |
150 | Iran | -0.147 | 101,125,991 |
151 | North Korea | -0.156 | 26,858,057 |
152 | Canada | -0.159 | 45,662,608 |
153 | Chile | -0.178 | 19,961,926 |
154 | France | -0.182 | 70,955,637 |
155 | Azerbaijan | -0.183 | 11,239,548 |
156 | Grenada | -0.184 | 114,489 |
157 | French Polynesia | -0.193 | 326,805 |
158 | Turkey | -0.2 | 88,563,546 |
159 | American Samoa | -0.21 | 27,113 |
160 | Tunisia | -0.217 | 12,613,152 |
161 | Liechtenstein | -0.226 | 46,010 |
162 | Finland | -0.231 | 5,573,431 |
163 | Sint Maarten | -0.237 | 55,727 |
164 | Guernsey | -0.257 | 68,040 |
165 | Palau | -0.296 | 21,895 |
166 | Austria | -0.306 | 9,437,479 |
167 | Bermuda | -0.312 | 68,741 |
168 | Singapore | -0.326 | 7,069,365 |
169 | Wallis and Futuna | -0.327 | 15,602 |
170 | Georgia | -0.332 | 4,658,221 |
171 | Lebanon | -0.345 | 5,554,926 |
172 | Malta | -0.397 | 493,399 |
173 | Saint Vincent and the Grenadines | -0.402 | 91,509 |
174 | Isle of Man | -0.403 | 93,748 |
175 | Saint Barthelemy | -0.412 | 6,551 |
176 | Albania | -0.43 | 2,693,821 |
177 | Barbados | -0.433 | 283,244 |
178 | Germany | -0.469 | 77,121,039 |
179 | North Macedonia | -0.474 | 1,991,340 |
180 | Czechia | -0.486 | 10,240,041 |
181 | Italy | -0.488 | 60,176,322 |
182 | Cyprus | -0.506 | 1,367,191 |
183 | Trinidad and Tobago | -0.515 | 1,281,028 |
184 | San Marino | -0.517 | 34,608 |
185 | Seychelles | -0.532 | 96,219 |
186 | Macau | -0.546 | 685,847 |
187 | Montenegro | -0.548 | 451,123 |
188 | Saint Kitts and Nevis | -0.554 | 55,288 |
189 | Cook Islands | -0.556 | 5,036 |
190 | Russia | -0.567 | 125,944,478 |
191 | Cuba | -0.587 | 9,372,254 |
192 | Slovenia | -0.599 | 1,889,540 |
193 | Dominica | -0.61 | 60,752 |
194 | Belarus | -0.643 | 7,944,074 |
195 | Croatia | -0.652 | 3,369,189 |
196.5 | Romania | -0.653 | 14,431,931 |
196.5 | Thailand | -0.653 | 61,966,909 |
198 | Ukraine | -0.657 | 34,563,459 |
199.5 | Hungary | -0.664 | 8,134,840 |
199.5 | Portugal | -0.664 | 9,256,921 |
201 | Mauritius | -0.665 | 1,147,087 |
202 | Saint Helena, Ascension, and Tristan da Cunha | -0.667 | 7,053 |
203 | U.S. Virgin Islands | -0.68 | 72,145 |
204 | Slovakia | -0.686 | 4,640,432 |
205 | Greece | -0.688 | 8,915,867 |
206.5 | China | -0.694 | 1,268,663,340 |
206.5 | Serbia | -0.694 | 5,263,030 |
208 | Spain | -0.719 | 44,518,781 |
209 | Poland | -0.72 | 30,828,106 |
210 | Lithuania | -0.722 | 1,866,086 |
211 | Bulgaria | -0.768 | 5,247,567 |
212 | Montserrat | -0.774 | 5,167 |
213 | Moldova | -0.791 | 1,963,207 |
214 | Puerto Rico | -0.811 | 1,926,517 |
215 | Japan | -0.835 | 97,590,494 |
216 | Hong Kong | -0.839 | 6,417,079 |
217 | Armenia | -0.861 | 2,235,537 |
218 | Estonia | -0.866 | 866,452 |
219 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | -0.871 | 2,982,432 |
220 | Latvia | -0.935 | 1,166,330 |
221 | Taiwan | -0.969 | 20,316,822 |
222 | South Korea | -1.034 | 46,217,832 |
223 | Andorra | -1.086 | 69,362 |
224 | Monaco | -1.268 | 30,618 |
225 | Saint Pierre and Miquelon | -1.332 | 3,153 |
226 | Saint Lucia | -1.44 | 156,105 |
Data from US Census International Database