2061 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2061, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—will likely be much lower than in previous decades, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions. According to United Nations projections, the world’s RNI is expected to fall below 0.5% per year, a significant decline from the 1.1% observed in 2020. Africa will remain the continent with the highest RNI, with many countries such as Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo maintaining rates above 2% annually, driven by high fertility and youthful populations. In contrast, Europe and East Asia, including countries like Germany, Italy, Japan, and China, will experience negative or near-zero RNI, as aging populations and low fertility rates lead to more deaths than births. South Asia and parts of Latin America will see moderate RNIs, with countries like India and Brazil experiencing continued declines as they approach demographic maturity. This contrast highlights a world where population growth is increasingly concentrated in a few regions, while many countries face population stagnation or decline.

Rank	Country	Rate of Natural Increase	Population
1	Benin	2.41	42,577,224
2	Niger	2.356	82,073,002
3	Congo Kinshasa	2.202	310,660,579
4	Guinea-Bissau	2.141	5,109,763
5	Guinea	2.131	35,363,267
6	Angola	2.124	106,084,950
7	Mozambique	1.983	79,580,006
8	Uganda	1.905	119,981,196
9	Liberia	1.893	13,021,545
10	Chad	1.806	46,320,909
11	Nigeria	1.763	524,484,967
12	Cameroon	1.758	70,554,087
13	Burundi	1.744	31,284,597
14	Tanzania	1.658	151,524,239
15	Congo Brazzaville	1.641	12,355,863
16	Mali	1.629	50,215,676
17	South Sudan	1.628	28,541,504
18	Zambia	1.56	46,496,026
19	Togo	1.557	18,311,382
20	Zimbabwe	1.514	28,954,904
21	Somalia	1.48	26,986,894
22	Sudan	1.471	105,390,754
23	Ethiopia	1.242	227,628,517
25	Central African Republic	1.184	9,410,200
25	Afghanistan	1.184	72,795,807
25	Ghana	1.184	64,071,781
27	Gabon	1.16	4,788,856
28	Senegal	1.109	35,046,325
29	Burkina Faso	1.091	42,172,052
30	Equatorial Guinea	1.063	3,448,698
31	Timor-Leste	1.046	2,410,775
32	Gaza Strip	1.04	3,380,669
33	Côte d'Ivoire	1.015	53,550,693
34	Kenya	1.011	101,175,574
35	Mauritania	1.008	7,287,047
36	Papua New Guinea	0.999	18,091,948
37	Madagascar	0.992	51,307,613
38	Malawi	0.982	38,352,008
39	Sierra Leone	0.965	16,326,538
40	Eritrea	0.933	9,875,036
41	Kuwait	0.928	4,129,615
42	The Gambia	0.908	4,295,025
43	Namibia	0.893	4,640,918
44	Pakistan	0.889	406,929,315
45	Iraq	0.869	70,434,004
46	West Bank	0.857	4,594,039
47	Jordan	0.836	17,264,564
48	Rwanda	0.78	20,864,358
49	Belize	0.775	648,410
50	United Arab Emirates	0.747	13,324,476
51	Oman	0.745	5,936,089
52	Qatar	0.743	2,648,550
53	Sao Tome and Principe	0.737	337,748
54	Syria	0.713	36,399,597
55	Tuvalu	0.712	13,759
56	Solomon Islands	0.693	1,091,536
57	Yemen	0.689	50,021,096
58	Vanuatu	0.675	467,967
59	Libya	0.673	10,369,923
60	Israel	0.648	13,803,170
61	Philippines	0.646	170,365,332
62.5	Guatemala	0.633	26,278,283
62.5	Egypt	0.633	163,631,511
64	Lesotho	0.619	2,732,843
65	Federated States of Micronesia	0.595	64,550
66	Saint Martin	0.548	35,734
67	Comoros	0.542	1,238,597
68	Marshall Islands	0.516	107,219
69	Djibouti	0.506	1,492,562
70	Tajikistan	0.489	12,823,576
71	Haiti	0.482	15,261,539
72	Kiribati	0.477	144,681
73	Brunei	0.47	699,078
74	Samoa	0.468	262,253
75	Nauru	0.465	12,052
76	Eswatini	0.458	1,343,737
77	Kyrgyzstan	0.448	7,214,156
78	Panama	0.415	6,154,685
79	Bahrain	0.379	1,917,157
80	Guam	0.375	149,159
81	Saudi Arabia	0.361	50,001,455
82	Botswana	0.322	3,428,684
83	Dominican Republic	0.314	12,881,421
84	Honduras	0.294	12,350,299
85	Laos	0.286	10,349,399
86	Algeria	0.266	58,474,697
87	Jamaica	0.249	3,069,097
88	Cambodia	0.245	20,588,820
89	Argentina	0.233	56,931,970
90	Guyana	0.219	835,106
91	Bangladesh	0.217	196,540,113
92	Cabo Verde	0.213	771,143
93	Tonga	0.212	90,046
94	Faroe Islands	0.202	59,918
95	Ecuador	0.196	22,073,146
96	Turkmenistan	0.195	6,761,954
97	Morocco	0.177	43,832,093
98	Venezuela	0.167	37,212,874
99	Nepal	0.165	36,001,842
100	Australia	0.162	35,714,156
101	Peru	0.161	38,606,519
102	Anguilla	0.158	30,403
103	Antigua and Barbuda	0.155	129,899
104	South Africa	0.153	70,421,948
105	Luxembourg	0.141	964,018
106	Paraguay	0.13	9,204,477
107	Turks and Caicos Islands	0.12	94,069
108	Malaysia	0.118	42,820,554
109	Bolivia	0.101	14,868,594
110	Kazakhstan	0.095	22,901,793
111	Mexico	0.094	155,568,316
112	New Caledonia	0.081	396,009
113	Fiji	0.079	1,023,865
114	British Virgin Islands	0.071	60,007
115	Iceland	0.065	428,874
116	Bhutan	0.061	1,071,715
117	Suriname	0.058	814,259
118	Cayman Islands	0.055	102,988
119	Northern Mariana Islands	0.05	42,194
120	India	0.046	1,647,527,801
121	The Bahamas	0.042	414,247
122	Indonesia	0.027	320,572,651
123	Ireland	0.013	6,757,275
124	Maldives	0.008	458,854
125	Burma	0.007	64,731,276
126	Costa Rica	0.005	6,305,404
127	Kosovo	0.001	2,267,826
128	New Zealand	0	6,180,696
129	Sri Lanka	-0.003	25,540,376
130	Nicaragua	-0.004	7,274,878
131	Norway	-0.014	6,778,306
132	Colombia	-0.018	49,905,369
133	Gibraltar	-0.021	28,132
134	Switzerland	-0.03	10,238,279
135	Mongolia	-0.035	3,712,234
136	Vietnam	-0.037	121,779,071
137	Jersey	-0.04	111,057
138.5	Uzbekistan	-0.042	35,935,512
138.5	El Salvador	-0.042	6,221,060
140	Sweden	-0.057	12,127,523
141	Aruba	-0.061	163,815
142	Greenland	-0.069	51,274
143	Denmark	-0.074	6,545,431
144	Curaçao	-0.076	150,002
145	United Kingdom	-0.077	75,709,769
146	Belgium	-0.085	13,375,746
147	Netherlands	-0.09	18,554,972
148	Uruguay	-0.097	3,548,338
149	Iran	-0.119	101,286,260
150	Brazil	-0.128	236,931,375
151	North Korea	-0.147	26,899,818
152	Canada	-0.157	45,531,686
153	Chile	-0.166	19,990,317
154.5	Grenada	-0.17	114,691
154.5	Azerbaijan	-0.17	11,259,409
156	French Polynesia	-0.177	327,411
157	Turkey	-0.178	88,839,641
158	France	-0.179	71,009,495
159	American Samoa	-0.193	27,430
160	Tunisia	-0.199	12,655,281
161	Liechtenstein	-0.227	45,923
162	Finland	-0.229	5,577,415
163	Sint Maarten	-0.243	55,597
164	Guernsey	-0.257	68,115
165	Palau	-0.306	21,940
166	Austria	-0.307	9,434,734
167	Singapore	-0.311	7,066,890
168	Wallis and Futuna	-0.313	15,652
169	Lebanon	-0.32	5,578,443
170	Bermuda	-0.322	68,959
171	Georgia	-0.328	4,673,289
172	Malta	-0.381	493,465
173	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines	-0.394	91,874
174.5	Isle of Man	-0.401	93,937
174.5	Albania	-0.401	2,712,750
176	Saint Barthelemy	-0.411	6,560
177	Barbados	-0.43	284,556
178	North Macedonia	-0.458	1,999,818
179	Germany	-0.473	77,334,344
180	Czechia	-0.48	10,264,724
181	Cyprus	-0.483	1,373,968
182	Italy	-0.494	60,255,580
183	Trinidad and Tobago	-0.498	1,288,531
184	San Marino	-0.509	34,787
185	Seychelles	-0.515	96,724
186	Macau	-0.533	687,550
187	Saint Kitts and Nevis	-0.535	55,526
188	Montenegro	-0.546	453,597
189	Cook Islands	-0.553	5,064
190	Russia	-0.569	126,419,431
191	Cuba	-0.587	9,435,758
192	Slovenia	-0.599	1,897,656
193	Dominica	-0.604	61,122
194	Belarus	-0.639	7,988,344
195	Thailand	-0.644	62,398,962
196	Croatia	-0.648	3,390,217
197	Mauritius	-0.651	1,154,657
198	Ukraine	-0.653	34,802,244
199	Romania	-0.654	14,526,579
200	Portugal	-0.656	9,300,021
201	Hungary	-0.657	8,181,714
202	Saint Helena, Ascension, and Tristan da Cunha	-0.662	7,099
203	U.S. Virgin Islands	-0.674	72,895
204	Slovakia	-0.675	4,671,035
205	China	-0.677	1,277,536,360
206	Serbia	-0.687	5,299,475
207	Greece	-0.69	8,965,994
208	Poland	-0.71	31,061,942
209	Spain	-0.711	44,788,142
210	Montserrat	-0.73	5,206
211	Lithuania	-0.733	1,879,713
212	Bulgaria	-0.764	5,289,902
213	Moldova	-0.782	1,986,230
214	Puerto Rico	-0.809	1,942,188
215	Japan	-0.823	98,338,971
216	Hong Kong	-0.835	6,458,941
217	Armenia	-0.839	2,260,211
218	Bosnia and Herzegovina	-0.861	3,009,825
219	Estonia	-0.863	874,948
220	Latvia	-0.935	1,179,874
221	Taiwan	-0.954	20,482,627
222	South Korea	-1.019	46,584,319
223	Andorra	-1.081	70,118
224	Monaco	-1.284	30,770
225	Saint Pierre and Miquelon	-1.315	3,195
226	Saint Lucia	-1.397	157,397

Data from US Census International Database