2004 Rate of Natural Increase

In 2004, the world’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between the crude birth rate and crude death rate, excluding migration—stood at approximately 1.2% per year. This global average masked significant regional and continental differences. Africa had the highest RNI, with many countries, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, experiencing rates above 2.5%, driven by high birth rates and declining death rates. Asia’s RNI was moderate, with South and Southeast Asia showing higher rates (around 1.5–2.0%), while East Asia, especially China, had a much lower RNI due to policies like the one-child policy and rapid demographic transition. Latin America and the Caribbean also had relatively high RNIs, though slightly lower than Africa, generally between 1.5% and 2.0%. In contrast, Europe’s RNI was close to zero or even negative in several countries, reflecting low birth rates and aging populations—countries like Germany, Italy, and Russia experienced natural decrease. North America and Oceania had modest RNIs, generally under 1%, with the United States and Australia seeing slightly positive natural growth. Thus, in 2004, the world’s population growth was primarily driven by higher RNIs in developing regions, while many developed countries faced stagnating or declining natural populations.

Data from US Census International Database