The Gambia has one of the highest rates of natural increase (RNI) in West Africa, with an estimated RNI of around 2.7% per year as of 2023. This high rate is primarily driven by a youthful population and a high birth rate, despite a gradual decline in fertility over recent decades. When compared to its neighbors, Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, The Gambia’s RNI is slightly higher; Senegal’s RNI is approximately 2.5% and Guinea-Bissau’s is about 2.3%. All three countries share similar demographic trends, such as high fertility and declining mortality rates, but The Gambia stands out for its particularly rapid population growth relative to its small geographic size. This rapid growth presents both opportunities and challenges, including increased pressure on resources, infrastructure, and social services compared to its neighbors.
| Year | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1985 | 3.081 | 773,544 |
| 1990 | 3.277 | 954,461 |
| 1995 | 3.391 | 1,161,378 |
| 2000 | 3.421 | 1,331,165 |
| 2005 | 3.362 | 1,509,112 |
| 2010 | 3.089 | 1,749,619 |
| 2015 | 2.746 | 2,023,672 |
| 2020 | 2.422 | 2,302,355 |
| 2024 | 2.164 | 2,523,327 |
| 2025 | 2.096 | 2,577,553 |
| 2026 | 2.048 | 2,631,425 |
| 2030 | 1.832 | 2,843,732 |
| 2035 | 1.63 | 3,101,196 |
| 2040 | 1.463 | 3,350,902 |
| 2045 | 1.324 | 3,592,873 |
| 2050 | 1.194 | 3,826,233 |
| 2055 | 1.068 | 4,048,532 |
| 2060 | 0.934 | 4,255,749 |
| 2065 | 0.804 | 4,444,176 |
| 2070 | 0.678 | 4,611,459 |
| 2075 | 0.556 | 4,755,514 |
| 2080 | 0.433 | 4,874,145 |
| 2085 | 0.311 | 4,965,270 |
| 2090 | 0.191 | 5,027,452 |
| 2095 | 0.078 | 5,060,665 |
| 2100 | -0.024 | 5,066,626 |
Data from US Census International Database